SPC AC 230553

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE MORNING ALONG THE
   NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
   OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH A RAPIDLY
   INTENSIFYING SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
   COAST. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY
   MID-AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL/S FL...
   ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CNTRL FL. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
   DURING THE MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND CONVERGENCE SUBSIDES
   WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE TRAILING FRONT.
   STILL WITHIN THE GRADIENT OF ROBUST MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS S OF A 110-KT
   500-MB JET CENTERED OVER S GA...THERE COULD BE A WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORALLY
   LIMITED TO ABOUT 12-15Z AND PROBABLY SPATIALLY LIMITED NEAR THE
   FRINGE OF WEAK ERN GULF BUOYANCY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WILL DEFER
   TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES. 

   ...NC COAST...
   CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A
   DEEPENING OFFSHORE CYCLONE SHOULD LIE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AT
   12Z/SAT. HERE...THE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER IS UNLIKELY TO BE
   SURFACE-BASED OWING TO A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATE. BUT VERY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SWLYS MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
   SHIFTING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY
   THE NRN PERIPHERY OF PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE CONVECTION.
   ELSEWHERE...THINLY BUOYANT ELEVATED PARCELS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   STRONGLY-FORCED ASCENT COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES W
   OF THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE MORNING.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/23/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z