Feb 6, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 6 17:06:18 UTC 2015 (20150206 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150206 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150206 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150206 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061706

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   EPISODES OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MODEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN OREGON SATURDAY. LIGHTNING COVERAGE
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER PATTERN IS DEAMPLIFYING AND WILL TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL
   PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME BY SATURDAY. SERIES OF WEAK...LOW-AMPLITUDE
   IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS REGIME INCLUDING THE WRN
   U.S. COAST.

   ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN COASTAL CA INTO COASTAL OREGON...

   MOIST SSWLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WRN U.S. COAST. A
   SERIES OF IMPULSES...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT...WILL PROMOTE WEAK CAPE AND LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
   LIGHTNING STRIKES IN COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED WEAK
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

   ..DIAL.. 02/06/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z