SPC AC 190544

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
   WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AFTER DARK.

   ...OK TO TN...

   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS
   THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS SPEED MAX DIGS
   TOWARD SRN NV.  IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WRN U.S.
   TROUGH...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN
   SHOULD ALLOW MODIFIED AIR MASS TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS EAST TX
   TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
   60F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  WHILE WARMING/MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS EAST TX IT APPEARS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED. 
   PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTH OF
   RETREATING BOUNDARY WHERE WARM ADVECTION...AIDED BY STRONG BUT
   VEERED LLJ...SHOULD INDUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER
   HALF OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
   850MB WILL YIELD THE MOST INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE POSSIBLY IN
   EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  GIVEN THE STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR THERE WILL
   BE A PROPENSITY FOR ROTATION AND SMALL HAIL COULD CERTAINLY
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE
   HAIL IS THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...THUS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
   SUB-SEVERE.

   ..DARROW.. 02/19/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z