Mar 21, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 21 04:42:17 UTC 2015 (20150321 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150321 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150321 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 52,293 5,115,103 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150321 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 51,083 5,022,294 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
   SPC AC 210442

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM LOUISIANA
   TO NORTHERN FLORIDA.  A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
   MISSOURI VALLEY AND PERHAPS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

   ...GULF COAST STATES...

   NRN MEXICO UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT EWD ACROSS
   TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 22/18Z.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE
   WEAK SFC CYCLONE ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS
   LA INTO SWRN MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
   MORE POSITIVE TILTED...DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL VEER AND CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD FOCUS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS MS/AL/GA. 
   MARITIME AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BUT STRUGGLE IN ITS NWD
   ADVANCE AS DEEP LAYER FLOW VEERS.  WITH MODEST HEATING EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
   AND FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HAVE
   INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   NEAR/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. 
   WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS RISE TO
   NEAR 70F.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...MID-MO VALLEY...

   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY
   REGION ALONG SRN FRINGE OF RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
   DIG SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
   OF FRONTAL SURGE FROM CNTRL KS...NEWD TOWARD SWRN IA.  WHILE
   ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...STEEP LAPSE
   RATES/ASCENT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
   JUST NORTH OF SFC WAVE.

   ...PACIFIC NW...

   FOCUSED REGION OF ASCENT...WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL
   JET...WILL SPREAD INTO WRN ORE/NWRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD.  AS PROFILES COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITHIN DEEPENING SWLY
   POST-FRONTAL FLOW.

   ..DARROW.. 03/21/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z