New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
51,083
5,022,294
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
SPC AC 210442
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM LOUISIANA
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY AND PERHAPS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
...GULF COAST STATES...
NRN MEXICO UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT EWD ACROSS
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 22/18Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE
WEAK SFC CYCLONE ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS
LA INTO SWRN MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
MORE POSITIVE TILTED...DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL VEER AND CONVERGENCE
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS MS/AL/GA.
MARITIME AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BUT STRUGGLE IN ITS NWD
ADVANCE AS DEEP LAYER FLOW VEERS. WITH MODEST HEATING EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
AND FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
NEAR/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS RISE TO
NEAR 70F. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...MID-MO VALLEY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY
REGION ALONG SRN FRINGE OF RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DIG SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SURGE FROM CNTRL KS...NEWD TOWARD SWRN IA. WHILE
ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...STEEP LAPSE
RATES/ASCENT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF SFC WAVE.
...PACIFIC NW...
FOCUSED REGION OF ASCENT...WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL
JET...WILL SPREAD INTO WRN ORE/NWRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. AS PROFILES COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITHIN DEEPENING SWLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW.
..DARROW.. 03/21/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z