SPC AC 220442

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN/CNTRL
   FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
   SOUTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY.  ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

   ...FL/GA...

   GULF COAST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NRN FL BY
   24/00Z AS STRONG MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PENINSULA.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...A WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD
   MIGRATE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ESEWD ALONG WEDGE FRONT THAT WILL
   SETTLE INTO NRN FL DURING THE DAY.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS
   THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITHIN
   VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
   WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
   FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS ANY STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...BUT
   OTHERWISE POSE AT LEAST A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.


   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...

   WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 24/00Z.  IN RESPONSE...LEE
   TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OVER SRN
   KS/MO.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALLOWING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   50S SFC DEW POINTS TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ACROSS
   WRN OK INTO EXTREME SRN KS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION
   WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE BUT IT/S NOT CLEAR IF ANY STORMS WILL ACTUALLY ROOT INTO
   THIS MODIFIED AIR MASS.  WHILE AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE DRY LINE...A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS AFTER DARK AS 50KT+ LLJ IMPINGES ON WARM FRONT
   ACROSS KS.  PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB COULD YIELD MUCAPE IN EXCESS
   OF 1000 J/KG WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
   STORMS.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO
   ACCOUNT FOR HAIL WITHIN STRONGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

   ..DARROW.. 03/22/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z