SPC AC 271655

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN U.S. TO THE WRN ATLANTIC
   WITH SECONDARY FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
   AFFECTING THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL RESULT IN STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT STRONG
   LIFT WITH THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM ERN MT INTO THE CENTRAL
   DAKOTAS.

   ...ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...
   LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT OVER ERN MT...THEN INTO WRN ND BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL
   BE LOW AND INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL EXIST ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
   A FEW STORMS MAY BE CELLULAR INITIALLY WITH SUB-SEVERE HAIL. THE
   MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GIVEN A STRONG
   FRONT. THE NAM MODEL LOOKS TOO ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY LEVELS COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...THUS LOW WIND
   PROBS WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/27/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z