SPC AC 020558

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY AREA SWWD
   ACROSS NRN MS/NWRN AR/SERN AR/NERN LA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD
   INTO E TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD
   TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS FRIDAY; SOME OF THESE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
   WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE A GULF OF AK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SSEWD ALONG THE BC COAST
   AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PAC NW...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
   CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA DAY 2/FRI./

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND
   WSWWD INTO OK/TX IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE TN/MID AND
   LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS WITH TIME.  BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A DEEPENING LOW OVER SRN NEW
   ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHILE
   CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.

   ...MID OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/SABINE VALLEYS...
   CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE
   COLD FRONT...FROM THE OZARKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  SOME
   LINGERING SEVERE RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS THE OZARKS AREA.

   MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SOME
   HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION.  THIS SHOULD FUEL EVENTUAL/VIGOROUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
   WITHIN A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM WRN KY SWWD TO NRN LA.  INITIAL STORMS
   WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN WEAKLY VEERING/INCREASING
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THOUGH
   TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED.  WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR EVENT
   WILL SUPPORT ONGOING DAMAGING WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   WITH HEATING MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND THUS
   INSTABILITY LIKELY WEAKER...LOWER/LESS WIDESPREAD RISK FOR HAIL/WIND
   IS EXPECTED.  MEANWHILE ACROSS SERN/S TX...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY -- WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT
   REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF THIS REGION AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR
   CAPPING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THUS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. 
   STILL...CAPE/SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
   ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK WITH ANY CELL WHICH COULD BECOME EVOLVE
   ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ..GOSS.. 04/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z