Storm Prediction Center Apr 3, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Apr 3, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Fri Apr 3 16:55:24 UTC 2015 (

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Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 2 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Graphic

20150403 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

Day 2 Prob. Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 031655

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
   SATURDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST
   OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
   STATES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WILL STEADILY CONTINUE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT EXITS ALL OF THE COASTAL
   SOUTHEAST STATES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA. FARTHER
   WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
   AMPLIFY/APPROACH BAJA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHILE A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
   COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
   EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FRONT
   WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
   STATES/FL...DEEPER CONVECTION/STRONGER STORMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
   TREND TOWARD SHORTWAVE RIDGING/WEAKER MASS CONVERGENCE AND POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD PRINCIPALLY DEVELOP/EXPAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PART OF TX INTO SOUTHERN OK. MODEST LAPSE
   RATES/BUOYANCY THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THAT HAIL
   POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
   AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
   BUOYANCY MAY ACCOUNT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
   WEST/CENTRAL MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OFFSHORE-CENTERED CLOSED LOW AND STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME LOWER-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
   LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR ORE/NORTHERN CA COASTAL
   AREAS.

   ..GUYER.. 04/03/2015

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