SPC AC 080600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF IL...FAR SRN
   WI...WRN INDIANA...AND PARTS OF ERN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   SWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA AND EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
   COASTAL STATES AND SWWD TO TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY.  THE ZONE WITH THE GREATEST
   RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT DAY 2 WILL REMAIN THE VIGOROUS
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
   SHOULD BE NEARING THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEYS OF WRN WI/WRN IL...BEFORE
   CONTINUING ON ENEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

   AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW FORECAST TO BE CROSSING THE MO/IA
   BORDER AREA EARLY SHOULD REACH NRN IL/SRN WI TOWARD SUNSET...AND
   THEN NEWD ACROSS LAKES MI AND HURON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
   SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MO VALLEY/OZARKS/RED RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY FRIDAY
   MORNING...EXPECT THIS FRONT TO LIE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
   ACROSS THE UPPER OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND INTO CENTRAL TX. 

   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SWWD INTO TX...
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD WITHIN A BROAD AREA ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO SHIFT EWD WITH
   TIME...POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID AND
   UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY
   EVOLVE.

   MEANWHILE FARTHER W...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   CONVECTION...RESULTING IN MODERATE /1500 TO 2500 J/KG/ MIXED-LAYER
   CAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO
   TX -- THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER THE AIRMASS WILL
   FULLY RECOVER ACROSS THE MO/IL AREAS DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF
   EARLIER CONVECTION.

   IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR/AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY FROM FAR SRN WI SWWD ACROSS
   WRN IL AND INTO THE OZARKS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE SERN
   OK/ARKLATEX AREAS.  WITH A BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLY STRONG WSWLYS AT
   MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   RAPID ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION -- AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /WITH RISKS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER
   LINEAR VS. CELLULAR STORM MODE PREVAILS/.  TORNADO RISK IS ALSO
   EVIDENT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE IL/SRN WI AREA AND VICINITY WHERE
   STRONGEST/BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
   LOW /AGAIN -- DEPENDENT UPON AMPLE DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF
   PRIOR STORMS/.

   OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SEVERE RISK TO CONTINUE...AS STORMS EXPAND ALONG
   MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT WHILE SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
   MS AND OH VALLEYS.

   ..GOSS.. 04/08/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z