Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
136,271
12,664,929
Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...
SPC AC 110545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS KS...WRN MO...NRN OK...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN TX...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS KANSAS...MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM ERN KS INTO MO EARLY IN
THE DAY AHEAD OF A POTENT LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE NRN
PLAINS. A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH FROM MN INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AROUND 00Z...WITH SLY
SURFACE WINDS HELPING TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 F INTO KS.
TO THE S...A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
NRN MX AND INTO TX LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM TX EWD ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES.
...MUCH OF KS...NWRN MO...NRN OK...
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS INTO
NRN MO WITH LIFT SUPPORTED VIA WARM ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL WITH THIS
EARLY ACTIVITY.
LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOW-PRESSURE
TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE LIKELY SUPPORTING AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A CONDITIONAL HAIL THREAT ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
...SRN TX...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM TX EWD ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT HEATING EXCEPT FOR SRN TX INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
HERE...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY AND MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCED. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AN EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE DESPITE SOME CAPPING CONCERNS LATE.
..JEWELL.. 04/11/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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