SPC AC 150559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AND SERN TX...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO FAR WRN
OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN TX NWD INTO WRN OK AND
SWRN KS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB/KS INTO WRN OK AND
MOST OF TX...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS WITH
OTHER SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL SINK SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NM/W TX...WITH WITH A DRYLINE
DEVELOPING AND FOCUSING AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
MEANWHILE...A SRN STREAM JET WILL EXTEND EWD FROM MEXICO INTO SRN TX
WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NWWD DURING THE DAY. IN BOTH AREAS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE...DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST
INTO THE SERN STATES AS WELL...BUT SHEAR WILL BE LACKING.
...CNTRL INTO SERN TX...
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH
COOL PROFILES ABOVE 700 MB. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SURFACE FOCUS
FOR LIFT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH A
LARGE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE BY 18Z...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM JET. WHILE THIS
MIGHT INDICATE RAPID OVERTURNING OF THE AIR MASS AND AN
MCS...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST SUPERCELLS MAY BE PRESENT AS
WELL. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE WITH A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF A CLUSTERING OF SEVERE REPORTS. IF STORM MODE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE CELLULAR...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
OCCUR AS WELL. STRONGER HEATING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY ALSO
SUPPORT ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVEN OVERNIGHT AS CAPPING WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
...NWRN TX...TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK...SRN KS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BACK ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD BENEATH
VERY COOL PROFILES ALOFT. WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THIS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN TX
INTO SWRN KS. WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NWRN TX AND WRN
OK. MODELS VARY AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE...BUT
REGARDLESS...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL WILL
ALSO OCCUR INTO SWRN/CNTRL KS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LESSER.
...SWRN TX INTO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE...
SOME HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN TX. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BACK WWD...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE HELPING TO MINIMIZE CAPPING DESPITE BEING
NIGHTTIME. MODELS DO AGREE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN FT. STOCKTON AND DEL RIO...AND IF THIS HAPPENS...VERY
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 04/15/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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