SPC AC 180600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND
   MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON TUESDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD FURTHER DAMPEN OVER QUEBEC AS AN
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES FROM LK SUPERIOR TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE
   VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER PARTS
   OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND LATE DAY/EVENING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT SHIFTS
   TOWARDS NEB. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE
   N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...BUT SHOULD BE SLOWED
   BY CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT AND PRESENCE OF A COLD ANTICYCLONE
   ANCHORED OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS.

   ...SRN GREAT PLAINS...
   AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE
   AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN A PERSISTENT
   LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED BY CLOUDINESS...WEAK DIABATIC HEATING
   SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICH MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE WRN GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   FLOW SHOULD BE MODERATE...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
   HEIGHT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO.  

   UPSTREAM OF THE WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER W TX...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   IN THE DEGREE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
   THE DAMPENING NATURE AND EARLY DAY TIMING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CNTRL ROCKIES. BUT THE WRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE RICH GULF AIR MASS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH NEAR-SURFACE
   SSELY FLOW. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AMIDST A
   BELT OF 50-KT 500-MB SWLYS PERSISTING THROUGH PEAK HEATING FROM SRN
   NM TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. LOW/DEEP SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS
   WILL LIE WITH NRN EXTENT BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES REGARDING
   SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN EXPECTED ABUNDANT
   CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION.

   ...NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
   A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
   EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AMIDST UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VEERED FROM THE
   WSW...YIELDING NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
   MODERATING THE DEGREE OF DEEP SHEAR. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
   FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PERSIST EWD. BUT STRENGTHENING
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS ILL-TIMED WITH RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL
   HEATING CYCLE. GIVEN THE WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...THE OVERALL RISK
   FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE LIMITED.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/18/2015

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