New York, NY...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
SPC AC 180600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND
MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD FURTHER DAMPEN OVER QUEBEC AS AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES FROM LK SUPERIOR TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND LATE DAY/EVENING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT SHIFTS
TOWARDS NEB. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE
N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...BUT SHOULD BE SLOWED
BY CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT AND PRESENCE OF A COLD ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS.
...SRN GREAT PLAINS...
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE
AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN A PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED BY CLOUDINESS...WEAK DIABATIC HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICH MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE WRN GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD BE MODERATE...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.
UPSTREAM OF THE WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER W TX...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE DEGREE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE DAMPENING NATURE AND EARLY DAY TIMING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CNTRL ROCKIES. BUT THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE RICH GULF AIR MASS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH NEAR-SURFACE
SSELY FLOW. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AMIDST A
BELT OF 50-KT 500-MB SWLYS PERSISTING THROUGH PEAK HEATING FROM SRN
NM TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. LOW/DEEP SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS
WILL LIE WITH NRN EXTENT BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES REGARDING
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN EXPECTED ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION.
...NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AMIDST UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VEERED FROM THE
WSW...YIELDING NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
MODERATING THE DEGREE OF DEEP SHEAR. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PERSIST EWD. BUT STRENGTHENING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS ILL-TIMED WITH RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. GIVEN THE WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...THE OVERALL RISK
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE LIMITED.
..GRAMS.. 05/18/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z