Jun 6, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 6 06:00:54 UTC 2015 (20150606 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150606 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150606 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 37,105 4,982,008 Indianapolis, IN...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...
SLIGHT 185,250 22,450,292 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
MARGINAL 257,864 30,726,571 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150606 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 37,005 4,989,202 Indianapolis, IN...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...
15 % 185,351 22,443,099 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
5 % 257,864 30,725,822 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Cleveland, OH...
   SPC AC 060600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   IL/INDIANA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY...
   A RESIDUAL MCS/RELATED OUTFLOW MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
   MORNING...SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS RIVER
   VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 12Z SUNDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THE
   SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...AND WITHIN A
   MOIST/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   COLD FRONT. AIDED BY AN AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH...A
   STRENGTHENING BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES /30-45 KT BETWEEN 700-500
   MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO RISK /EVEN WITH A TENDENCY
   FOR VEERED L0W-LEVEL WINDS/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE
   MODEST...POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY
   INCLUDING NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO INTO EASTERN KS. FARTHER WEST...AT
   LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS EASTERN
   CO...WITH HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO RISK. NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE
   SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT
   COULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS.
   FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE.

   ..GUYER.. 06/06/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z