New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
SPC AC 111738
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN ND TO SRN MT...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK.
...SYNOPSIS...
FASTEST BELTS OF MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
GENERALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PHASE WITH THE LATTER
FEATURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SW...A
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD DRIFT E ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE INITIALLY NEAR NRN IL AT 12Z/FRI SHOULD
TRACK E ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED
SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...MIDWEST/NORTHEAST STATES...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A PLAINS EML TO YIELD STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL/IND SHOULD
FOSTER AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES
DIFFER WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DIVORCED N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. STILL
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-KT...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST TORNADO RISK WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED NEAR THE FRONT
OVER SE LOWER MI.
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER E NEAR THE FRONT
OVER PARTS OF NY/NRN PA. WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
AND ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MODERATE. BUT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS COULD FORM ALONG
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ADVANCING OVER CNTRL NY TOWARDS THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE-POINT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE INVOF TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLYS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
VORT MAX...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITH UPSCALE GROWTH MOST LIKELY OVER
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX. SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE MT/ND BORDER AREA
INTO NRN WY AT 13/00Z. BUT WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN MT/FAR NRN WY AND MAY PERSIST EWD INTO FRI NIGHT. ON THE
PERIPHERY OF STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS COUPLED WITH
VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS.
..GRAMS.. 06/11/2015
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