Jun 11, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 11 17:38:08 UTC 2015 (20150611 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150611 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150611 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 153,543 23,001,438 Detroit, MI...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Buffalo, NY...Fort Wayne, IN...
MARGINAL 259,455 40,545,845 New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150611 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 153,490 23,000,206 Detroit, MI...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Buffalo, NY...Fort Wayne, IN...
5 % 259,430 40,545,162 New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 111738

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
   NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO
   THE NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN ND TO SRN MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST
   LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FASTEST BELTS OF MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
   NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   GENERALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PHASE WITH THE LATTER
   FEATURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SW...A
   WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD DRIFT E ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE INITIALLY NEAR NRN IL AT 12Z/FRI SHOULD
   TRACK E ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED
   SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...MIDWEST/NORTHEAST STATES...
   DESPITE THE LACK OF A PLAINS EML TO YIELD STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE AND
   ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL/IND SHOULD
   FOSTER AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES
   DIFFER WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WARM
   SECTOR...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN DIVORCED N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. STILL
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-KT...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS/SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE
   GREATEST TORNADO RISK WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED NEAR THE FRONT
   OVER SE LOWER MI.

   MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER E NEAR THE FRONT
   OVER PARTS OF NY/NRN PA. WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   AND ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP SHEAR SHOULD
   REMAIN MOSTLY MODERATE. BUT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS COULD FORM ALONG
   THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ADVANCING OVER CNTRL NY TOWARDS THE HUDSON
   VALLEY.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE-POINT OF THE
   SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE INVOF TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
   WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLYS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
   VORT MAX...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITH UPSCALE GROWTH MOST LIKELY OVER
   THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX. SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   HAZARDS.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED NEAR A SURFACE
   TROUGH/DEVELOPING FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE MT/ND BORDER AREA
   INTO NRN WY AT 13/00Z. BUT WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES...ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   SRN MT/FAR NRN WY AND MAY PERSIST EWD INTO FRI NIGHT. ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS COUPLED WITH
   VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A
   COUPLE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/11/2015

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