Jun 26, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 26 17:28:01 UTC 2015 (20150626 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150626 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150626 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 231,465 37,712,109 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
MARGINAL 433,785 45,208,949 Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Phoenix, AZ...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150626 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 232,214 37,764,921 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
5 % 433,208 45,165,852 Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Phoenix, AZ...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...
   SPC AC 261728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
   THE NORTH...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN GREAT
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND
   NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
   OF THE NORTH.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE SURROUNDING AREA OF CYCLONIC
   FLOW AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
   WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE
   OCCLUDING...AS WEAK SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIALLY TAKES PLACE
   INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE ATTENDANT SFC WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL
   EDGE NWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHILE A COLD FRONT ARCS
   SWWD INTO THE SWRN/S-CNTRL STATES FROM THE EVOLVING CYCLONES. ON THE
   WRN FRINGES OF AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...A COMPACT VORT
   MAX AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVANCE SEWD FROM THE SRN CANADIAN
   PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
   TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH. EVEN
   FARTHER W...A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
   THE WRN STATES...WITH MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE AMIDST MODEST
   MID-LEVEL ELYS BEING MAINTAINED ON ITS SRN FLANK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SWRN STATES.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO CENTRAL GEORGIA...

   CYCLONIC H7-H5 FLOW OVER THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL INTENSIFY TO
   AROUND 30-40 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE DEEP
   CYCLONE. AMIDST GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   APPROACHING-MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALOFT...NEGLIGIBLE
   CAPPING...AND RICH DEEP MOISTURE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS POCKETS OF
   INSOLATION FACILITATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION
   TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL...SUSTAINED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS --
   AIDED BY WATER-LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH 1.75-2.00-INCH PW. DEEP SHEAR
   WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY
   INVOF THE NRN EXTENT OF THE NWD-ADVANCING WARM SECTOR...WHERE SFC
   WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BACKED/SELY-ELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SRH. A FEW
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIALLY
   CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF
   CNTRL/ERN/NRN VA INTO ADJACENT MD.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH TO S-CNTRL TX...

   MULTIPLE...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST PBL
   OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING. SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY
   OCCUR IN THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING WATER LOADING. DEEP
   SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE MODEST TO THE SW OF THE SLIGHT-RISK
   AREA...MITIGATING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PRECLUDING A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.

   ...THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...

   DESPITE ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE
   SEWD-MOVING SFC TROUGH...THE PRESENCE OF MIDDLE/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR 750-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO BECOME
   ESTABLISHED DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
   IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/SPEED MAX. SFC
   OBSERVATIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFFER
   TOO-RICH MOISTURE IN THE PBL...THOUGH EVEN THE MORE-STRONGLY MIXED
   GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION/MLCAPE.
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGH AND
   VORT-MAX/SPEED-MAX-PRECEDING ASCENT AROUND PEAK HEATING -- NEAR THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER -- AND SPREAD SEWD/SSEWD. THE LATEST
   MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SVR
   WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY AS H7-H5 LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 7
   C/KM. 

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

   THE INFLUX OF MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS BECOME
   ENHANCED. LARGE DCAPE IN THE DEEPLY MIXED PBL WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH A COUPLE OF SVR WIND
   GUSTS POSSIBLE. SUCH RISK COULD INCREASE IN PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL
   AZ...IF 10-20 KT OF H7-H5 ELYS WERE TO FACILITATE
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE DESERT
   FLOOR INCLUDING THE TUCSON/PHOENIX AREAS AND VICINITY.

   ..COHEN.. 06/26/2015

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