Jul 14, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 14 17:28:30 UTC 2015 (20150714 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150714 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150714 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 150,172 5,641,597 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...
MARGINAL 436,074 25,800,801 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150714 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 150,677 5,684,133 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...
5 % 436,004 25,770,168 Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...
   SPC AC 141728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN GA INTO THE ERN
   CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
   INTO THE SERN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER
   WRN AND ERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
   THE S-CNTRL CONUS.  ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING POLEWARD INTO THE
   NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A SERIES OF
   LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRACKING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL
   PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARCING NWWD
   /AS A WARM FRONT/ INTO CNTRL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. 
   FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...

   A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
   TRANSLATE SEWD DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO CAROLINAS BY 12Z/WEDNESDAY.  AND WHILE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL
   RAPIDLY SHIFT OFFSHORE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE
   SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND SEA-BREEZE FRONTS WILL FOCUS DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
   YIELD MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AMIDST A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   EXHIBITING A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST /25- 30 KT/
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  AS SUCH...THE SETUP WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING OUTFLOW
   WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...

   ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING 12Z/WEDNESDAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NEB AND NRN KS WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY
   WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ALONG THE
   NOCTURNAL LLJ AXIS.  A SUBSET OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
   AFTERNOON AS THESE LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS ARE AUGMENTED BY
   DCVA RELATED TO MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TRACKING THROUGH
   THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THE GREATEST CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
   /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL
   SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
   ALIGN WITH WIND PROFILES DISPLAYING PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT
   THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
   PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

   ...NRN PLAINS...

   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DEEP WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN
   THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AS THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY A WEAK
   DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE COMBINATION OF
   MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..MEAD.. 07/14/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z