Jul 29, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 29 17:20:09 UTC 2015 (20150729 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150729 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150729 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 278,115 52,953,966 New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Newark, NJ...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150729 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 281,631 54,242,001 New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Newark, NJ...
   SPC AC 291720

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
   COASTAL STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH CYCLONIC
   FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS...RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS
   OVER THE E.

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING
   THE DAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE S
   CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST
   CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH
   THE UPPER TROUGH.

   TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A CNTRL PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
   AIR MASS WWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK DAYTIME STORMS
   DEVELOPING THERE.

   ...NERN STATES...
   SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR AN ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NY AND PA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
   ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT INCREASING MEAN WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS
   FOCUSED LIFT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...PERHAPS A FEW
   DAMAGING GUSTS. ANY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
   STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH AMPLE
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
   FROM ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO NRN FL AND THE WRN
   CAROLINAS. STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z