SPC AC 031728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES/DELMARVA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN
   VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE
   PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
   CONUS/CANADA TUESDAY. A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/MODERATELY STRONGER CORRIDOR
   OF LOWER-AMPLITUDES WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
   THE CONUS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TWO LARGE-SCALE TROUGHS...ONE
   OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THE OTHER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
   OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

   ...NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   MODERATELY STRONG/SEASONALLY COOL CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
   AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
   A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE FRONT IN AREAS
   GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE VERY STRONG SHEAR
   /35-50 KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL TEND TO COINCIDE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO
   FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RELATIVELY MODEST NEAR-FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE SUB-OPTIMAL
   TIMING OF EMBEDDED/LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE FEATURES. WHERE STORMS
   DO DEVELOP/INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK
   SEEMS LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD.
   AREAS INCLUDING THE DELMARVA/NEARBY NJ IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE
   WAVE APPEAR TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK FOR SOME SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
   COULD ALSO ULTIMATELY WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE PENDING
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

   ...HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
   EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD FROM WY
   VICINITY EARLY TUESDAY TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE ONE
   OR MORE CONVECTIVELY RELATED DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO CROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND OTHER NEARBY AREAS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/LOWER OH
   VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY DIURNALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR A
   NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY. 

   FARTHER WEST...WHILE EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY BE
   FACTORS...OTHER POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE SUSTAINED/INTENSE
   CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN PARTS OF NEB/KS...WHERE AN
   UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE DAY 1 TIME FRAME
   PENDING EARLY-DAY DETAILS/GREATER CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION. AT LEAST ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY TUESDAY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 08/03/2015

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