New York, NY...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
341,068
85,904,227
New York, NY...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...
SPC AC 101710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC/GULF COAST
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS -- ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST STATES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.
...ATLANTIC/GULF COAST STATES...
SEASONALLY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD
AS LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
SHOULD READILY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TO A POSITION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...SWWD INTO
THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WWD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER
NRN LA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE
NOTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ENSURING RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN SO...SCT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY ALONG THE
FRONTAL CORRIDOR AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
MAY COMPLICATE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND AFFILIATED NEAR-SFC
BOUNDARIES. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS MESOSCALE FACTORS WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AS FORECAST SHEAR IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. ONE AREA WHERE SOME CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION IS ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IT APPEARS ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS COULD EVOLVE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
RISK WITH CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.
...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ALONG
CASCADES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 08/10/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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