Aug 10, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 10 17:10:21 UTC 2015 (20150810 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150810 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150810 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 341,542 85,880,347 New York, NY...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150810 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 341,068 85,904,227 New York, NY...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...
   SPC AC 101710

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC/GULF COAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS -- ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
   COAST STATES.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE FOUR CORNERS STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EWD INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS.

   ...ATLANTIC/GULF COAST STATES...

   SEASONALLY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD
   AS LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE APPALACHIANS.  CONVECTION
   SHOULD READILY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT THAT IS
   EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TO A POSITION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY...SWWD INTO
   THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WWD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER
   NRN LA.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE
   NOTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ENSURING RENEWED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.  EVEN SO...SCT
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY ALONG THE
   FRONTAL CORRIDOR AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
   MAY COMPLICATE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND AFFILIATED NEAR-SFC
   BOUNDARIES.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS MESOSCALE FACTORS WILL PROVE
   INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AS FORECAST SHEAR IS
   NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  ONE AREA WHERE SOME CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
   POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION IS ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  IF
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA INTO THE LOWER
   HUDSON VALLEY IT APPEARS ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS COULD EVOLVE AHEAD
   OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
   RISK WITH CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ALONG
   CASCADES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED
   TO HOLD OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ..DARROW.. 08/10/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z