Aug 24, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 24 16:41:44 UTC 2015 (20150824 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150824 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150824 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 22,870 11,905,065 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Bridgeport, CT...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150824 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,672 12,131,137 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Bridgeport, CT...
   SPC AC 241641

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW
   FILLING ACROSS ERN CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND SWD INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH
   DEVELOPING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A GENERALLY
   WARM/MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL AID IN
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   ELSEWHERE...DAYTIME STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS SWD INTO FL ALONG THE SWD EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC
   TROUGH...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK SHEAR.

   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WEAK SFC TROUGH BY
   AFTERNOON AS HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR. MID TO UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL BE NEUTRAL. AS SUCH...ONLY
   A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH BOTH
   HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SFC PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TORNADO THREAT DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF
   SUPERCELL STORM MODE AT TIMES.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/24/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z