SPC AC 021701

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
   STATES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
   LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
   STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES
   WITH UPPER LOW SINKING SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A SFC LOW WILL
   EXIST OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
   WY AT 00Z. 

   THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
   POOL OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
   AND ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY INACTIVE DUE TO A LACK
   OF FORCING FOR STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MANITOBA WHERE
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
   FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF
   THE U.S. BORDER.

   ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES
   ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN
   STATES. A RELATIVE ZONE OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM SRN
   WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...INDIANA AND OH WHERE A COOL POCKET ALOFT
   WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND UPDRAFT VIGOR DURING PEAK HEATING.
   HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
   LARGELY FAVOR ONLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z