SPC AC 131731

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE U.S. ON MONDAY APPEARS
   NEGLIGIBLE.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHIFTS GRADUALLY EWD
   INTO/ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW
   FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  THE
   AMPLIFICATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY REPEATED/EPISODIC SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHING DIGGING SEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK AND WRN CANADA INTO THE
   WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LARGE/HIGH
   AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRETY OF WRN NOAM BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE WRN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT
   IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF
   THE DEPARTING NERN U.S. TROUGH/LOW.

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PROGGED INVOF ME AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WITH THE
   REMNANT FRONT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE REMNANTS REMAIN OVER THE
   FL PENINSULA.  FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD
   ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE ROCKIES...TRAILING FROM A DEVELOPING
   CYCLONE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY.  MEANWHILE...A SHARPENING
   LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AS
   A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.

   SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE N
   CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  SHOWERS AND
   A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT FL AND THE GULF COASTAL AREA NEAR AND
   N OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT TIED TO THE DEPARTING ERN U.S. SYSTEM. 
   FINALLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE MID AND
   LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY VICINITY NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRONG/PERSISTENT
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  IN ALL AREAS...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD
   PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK.

   ..GOSS.. 09/13/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z