Sep 30, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 30 05:57:16 UTC 2015 (20150930 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150930 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150930 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150930 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 300557

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. 
   OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
   BROADER REGION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...AS WELL AS ACROSS
   THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE DAY
   TWO...GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS -- OVER THE
   SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE SECOND OVER QUEBEC.  MEANWHILE IN THE W...A
   SECOND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   TOWARD/INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

   AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN W AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM...WHILE A LARGE
   HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM QUEBEC SSWWD TO TX.  IN THE
   SOUTHEAST...WEAK TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST...AS THE UPPER
   LOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES.  

   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...WITHIN THE MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS RESIDING ACROSS
   THIS AREA.  SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS
   OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN W AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. 
   WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARING LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS VICINITY DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE THAN WAS
   APPARENT IN THE PRIOR FORECAST...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE MRGL RISK
   AREA.  APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM ACROSS THE U.S.
   THIS PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 09/30/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z