SPC AC 050535

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN AZ...SW
   NM AND FAR WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN FAR WEST TEXAS.
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   FLORIDA.

   ...FAR ERN AZ/SW NM/FAR WEST TX...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
   TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLY FROM FAR WEST TX INTO SRN NM. POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY WITH
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LAS CRUCES NM AND EL PASO TX AT
   21Z SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 45 TO 55 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -11 TO -12 C. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGEST DISCRETE CELLS
   MAY ROTATE AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..BROYLES.. 10/05/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z