New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
26,013
3,308,723
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Lake Charles, LA...
SPC AC 240555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST/SOUTHERN LA...
...SUMMARY...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WITH A PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN
EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL/EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A MORE PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
...UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
TX...SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO LA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. GIVEN AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER /AIDED BY THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...PERSISTENT AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD TEND TO KEEP NEAR-SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION AT A MINIMUM INLAND...ESPECIALLY PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. THAT SAID...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS IN COASTAL AREAS GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
..GUYER.. 10/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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