SPC AC 030651

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CST TUE NOV 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A FEW STORMS WITH
   SUB-SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A TROUGH WEST AND RIDGE
   EAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EVOLVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
   TO NRN GREAT PLAINS WILL YIELD A NET EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH
   FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 12Z/THU. AT THE
   SURFACE...A LEAD CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM SD TO NW ONTARIO. A COLD
   FRONT WILL EXTEND SW OF THIS LOW TO A LEE CYCLONE OVER NERN CO. THIS
   LOW SHOULD REACH S-CNTRL NEB...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKING
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE EARLY THU.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MODIFICATION OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE NW GULF INTO
   TAMAULIPAS HAS COMMENCED PER GOES PW IMAGERY. POLEWARD MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT WILL STRENGTHEN LATE D1 INTO D2...LIKELY YIELDING LOWER
   60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO NW TX AS A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
   OVERSPREADS MUCH OF S/E TX BY 12Z/THU. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COMPOSITE COLD
   FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING
   WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
   FOSTER A PRIMARY RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND...IN SPITE OF
   MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TIME OF DAY. INCREASINGLY VEERED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
   ATTENDANT TORNADO POTENTIAL.

   ...W-CNTRL NEB...
   STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT ON THE NOSE
   OF THE GREAT PLAINS LLJ IN COMBINATION WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SURFACE DEW
   POINTS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE STEEP WITHIN AN EML PLUME THAT WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
   SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EVEN WITH
   MEAGER BUOYANCY...ROBUST EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/03/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z