SPC AC 041728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST WED NOV 04 2015
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN
TX...SERN OK...AR...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID AND
UPPER MS VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRI MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS MN DURING THE DAY WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO
CNTRL TX BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
RAPIDLY TRANSPORT MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS
TX...OK...AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX...WHERE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO CREATE AN ISOLATED WIND
THREAT ACROSS NRN REGIONS MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...TX...SRN OK...AR...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING...BOTH ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OR WITH A REMNANT SQUALL LINE...AND IN THE ZONE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND OR HAIL THREAT...BUT THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL INTO NERN TX...AND
ACROSS SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HERE...STRONG MOISTENING WITHIN A ZONE
OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL LEAD TO A SW/NE ORIENTED ZONE OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. CAPE WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT GIVEN VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE. THE NEWD EXTENT OF THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY TERMINATE
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MO WHERE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF DRASTICALLY.
...MID MO TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
A PLUME OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. DESPITE RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A NARROW
SQUALL LINE FROM MN SWWD INTO ERN KS. STRONG MEAN WIND FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...THOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL ASPECT OF THIS EVENT WILL MITIGATE THE
THREAT OVERALL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT JUST AHEAD OF
THE WIND SHIFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SMALL COUPLETS IN CELLS OR WITHIN A
LINE...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT LIKELY BEING BRIEF. GIVEN THE
FORECAST PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND DAMAGE MAY
EVEN OCCUR DESPITE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INTO MI.
..JEWELL.. 11/04/2015
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