Nov 4, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 4 17:28:29 UTC 2015 (20151104 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20151104 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151104 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 162,344 16,347,879 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 478,423 52,349,308 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...
Probabilistic Graphic
20151104 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 161,896 16,266,861 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 479,394 52,444,615 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...
   SPC AC 041728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST WED NOV 04 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN
   TX...SERN OK...AR...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID AND
   UPPER MS VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
   TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRI MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
   DEEPEN ACROSS MN DURING THE DAY WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO
   CNTRL TX BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   RAPIDLY TRANSPORT MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS
   TX...OK...AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
   WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX...WHERE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO CREATE AN ISOLATED WIND
   THREAT ACROSS NRN REGIONS MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

   ...TX...SRN OK...AR...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING...BOTH ALONG THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT OR WITH A REMNANT SQUALL LINE...AND IN THE ZONE
   OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND OR HAIL THREAT...BUT THE GREATEST SEVERE
   RISK WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL INTO NERN TX...AND
   ACROSS SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HERE...STRONG MOISTENING WITHIN A ZONE
   OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL LEAD TO A SW/NE ORIENTED ZONE OF
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. CAPE WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT IT WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT GIVEN VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND
   DAMAGE. THE NEWD EXTENT OF THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY TERMINATE
   NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MO WHERE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF DRASTICALLY.

   ...MID MO TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
   A PLUME OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. DESPITE RELATIVELY
   WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A NARROW
   SQUALL LINE FROM MN SWWD INTO ERN KS. STRONG MEAN WIND FIELDS WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...THOUGH WEAK
   INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL ASPECT OF THIS EVENT WILL MITIGATE THE
   THREAT OVERALL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT JUST AHEAD OF
   THE WIND SHIFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SMALL COUPLETS IN CELLS OR WITHIN A
   LINE...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT LIKELY BEING BRIEF. GIVEN THE
   FORECAST PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND DAMAGE MAY
   EVEN OCCUR DESPITE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INTO MI.

   ..JEWELL.. 11/04/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z