SPC AC 250521
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A BELT OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM EASTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF NEAR-SEVERE HAIL MAINLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
..BUNTING.. 11/25/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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