Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
139,808
13,156,117
Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
SPC AC 241730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO SRN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY AND THE ARK-LA-TEX TO MID SOUTH
EARLY SATURDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WRN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
DIGS OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA BY EARLY SAT. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT CHANGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL AS DEEP-LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BACK LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT STRENGTHENS LATE D1 FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO TN VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING W/NWWD FRI NIGHT.
...ARKLATEX TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER MS TO TN VALLEYS
AT 12Z/FRI WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING ATOP A DEVELOPING
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY AS MODEST WAA CONTINUES. WHILE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...IT WILL REMAIN WELL
DISPLACED FROM THE FAST HIGH-LEVEL JETS TO THE N/W. IN
ADDITION...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL
FURTHER LIMIT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES. NEVERTHELESS...35-45
KT 850-MB SWLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND SHORT QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO DURING THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS RISK SHOULD WANE FOR A TIME FRI EVENING AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS W WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH HOW FAST THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS NW EARLY
SAT. BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG/N OF THIS BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ARKLATEX TO MID
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 12/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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