Jan 4, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 4 06:53:46 UTC 2015 (20150104 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150104 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150104 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150104 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040653

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
   ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.S. AND
   CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE
   PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
   ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN STATES AND GULF COAST
   REGION...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF
   HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIAN
   MOUNTAINS...AND TO THE GULF COAST LATE.  GIVEN A PRECEDING COLD
   FRONTAL INTRUSION OFF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE GULF BASIN DURING
   THE DAY 1 PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SHUNTED AWAY
   FROM LAND.  THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE A
   POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   CONUS...A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE A TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..PETERS.. 01/04/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z