Jan 10, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 10 08:23:19 UTC 2015 (20150110 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150110 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150110 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150110 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100823

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2015

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
   AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

   ...ERN NC...

   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
   REGION OF NC EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY
   EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...

   WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE NOTED ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS
   SWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST MONDAY.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG
   COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOURAGE MOSTLY SHALLOW ELEVATED
   CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...BUOYANCY MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW
   EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

   ..DARROW.. 01/10/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z