Feb 23, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 23 08:08:42 UTC 2015 (20150223 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150223 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150223 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150223 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230808

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
   THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
   COAST...BEFORE SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
   ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT BELTS OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE
   MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ARCTIC REGION WILL
   CONTINUE TO CONVERGE INTO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
   AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD.  BENEATH THIS REGIME...ANOTHER EXPANSIVE
   COLD SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD AND BEGIN DEVELOPING
   SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

   IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
   COAST.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AS IT TURNS EAST
   NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT
   THIS IMPULSE WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT RAPIDLY ACCELERATES THROUGH A
   CONFLUENT REGIME...ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z
   THURSDAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT 500 MB
   SPEED MAXIMUM.  COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE...WEST
   SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 50-70+
   KT...ALLOWING FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM
   THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS.

   EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...MOISTURE
   RETURN WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE
   SURFACE-BASED LAYER...WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY DEEP WITH
   NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
   STATES.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
   SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT MUCH BEYOND WEAK CAPE /BASED IN THE ELEVATED
   MOIST LAYER/.  HOWEVER...THIS STILL SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE
   CONVECTION...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
   OVERSPREADING EASTERN GULF COASTAL AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

   ..KERR.. 02/23/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z