Storm Prediction Center Mar 25, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


Mar 25, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 25 07:05:22 UTC 2015 ( \| )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 3 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Graphic

20150325 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

Day 3 Prob. Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 250705

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

   ...SERN U.S...

   ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 28/12Z.
    AT THE SFC...ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
   REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE AS MODELS SUGGEST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE
   SEASONALLY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.  WHILE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUCH THAT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
   WOULD BE POSSIBLE...FORECAST LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY MAY NOT BE
   ADEQUATE FOR MORE THAN A FEW STRONG STORMS.  ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND GUST IF PENINSULA HEATS/DESTABILIZES MORE THAN THE MODELS
   SUGGEST.

   ..DARROW.. 03/25/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z