SPC AC 220708

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
    ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
   FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS.

   ...SOUTHERN/CNTRL PLAINS...

   CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AND REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
   ONGOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO NEAR
   THE RIO GRANDE BY 24/12Z AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN TRACK NEWD
   INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
   STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE AS MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL BE PRESENT.  HAIL...WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX...PERHAPS EXTENDING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
   IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN MATERIALIZE.

   FARTHER NORTH...WEAKER SHEAR AND LESS INSTABILITY FAVOR MORE
   ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. 
   WEAKER FORCING ALSO SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY BE LESS ORGANIZED AND
   FOCUSED.  EVEN SO...STRONG HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
   HAIL/WIND COULD BE NOTED WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 05/22/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z