SPC AC 120730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN IA/NRN MO ENEWD TO
   SRN LOWER MI/WRN OH...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. E OF
   THE ROCKIES EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   COUNTRY SUNDAY...INCLUDING A BROAD -- BUT RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY
   -- SEVERE RISK LIKELY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  A
   MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE RISK MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
   LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL
   CANADA...A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE HUDSON
   BAY AREA.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THIS LOW WILL
   CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES...WHILE SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   MEANWHILE...WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
   GENERALLY IN PLACE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES.  AS SUCH...THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   WILL INCLUDE THE BROAD AREA WITHIN WHICH ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WILL
   LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

   ...SERN IA/NRN MO NEWD TO SRN LOWER MI/WRN OH...
   AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SAGGING
   SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION FROM ERN IA/NRN MO EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...25-35 KT
   MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAK
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL/LINEAR STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BECOME
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS -- JUSTIFYING INCLUSION OF 15% SEVERE
   PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COMPLICATING THE FORECAST
   -- PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.  BROADLY
   SPEAKING...RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING
   THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM NEWD INTO MO -- AIDED BY A BELT OF
   ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INVOF THE SAGGING FRONT...AND OVER THE ERN
   WY/NEB PANHANDLE VICINITY WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
   MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER
   STORMS.

   ..GOSS.. 06/12/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z