SPC AC 130658
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GA...SC...AND NC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AL INTO ERN NC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MORE ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE SERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WED WITH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SEVERE DAYTIME STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL.
TO THE W...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE FLATTENING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR A SFC TROUGH HERE AS WELL.
...SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM SRN GA INTO SC AND ERN NC BY
LATE AFTERNOON. AIDING IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE 700 MB
FLOW AROUND 35 KT. WEAKLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM SUGGEST
THAT SOME CELLS COULD PROPAGATE SWD AND MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS BRIEFLY...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE HAIL THREAT
LOCALLY.
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
SLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WILL SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
DAKOTAS...NEB AND KS...BENEATH MODEST WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 25-30
KTS. CAPPING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ROUGHLY S OF I-70...WITH A
MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A BIT COOLER. A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
..JEWELL.. 07/13/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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