Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
MARGINAL
261,789
28,970,078
Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
166,453
7,152,878
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
5 %
262,036
28,909,629
Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 160733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA SWWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY...FROM ROUGHLY THE HIGH PLAINS
EASTWARD. PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
ALONG BOTH THE W AND E COASTS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH EVOLVES...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND
SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE IL VICINITY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND W TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT SHOULD FOCUS AN AXIS OF
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...MID MO VALLEY SWWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FAIRY SIZABLE DIFFERENCES EXISTS AMONGST VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODEL
RUNS ATTM REGARDING EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THESE DIFFERENCES -- DRIVEN BY
MORE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EVOLUTION WITHIN THE
LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH -- CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY UPON THE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST FOR TUE. 8-19.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD/ONGOING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- I.E. ACROSS
MUCH OF THE RISK AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST ROBUST STORM
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE IA
VICINITY SWWD ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE...THE NAM DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A CONVECTIVELY-INFLUENCED BOUNDARY MUCH FARTHER E -- I.E. INTO
NRN IL...AND AS SUCH A MUCH MORE STABILIZED AIRMASS FARTHER W NEARER
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND DEGREE OF
SEVERE RISK IS SURPRISINGLY LARGE ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK
FROM IA SWWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH FAIRLY BROAD MRGL
RISK AREA INTO IL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM DEPICTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN. FROM A BROAD PERSPECTIVE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AROUND THE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
SUPPORT AREAS OF STRONGER/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..GOSS.. 08/16/2015
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z