Aug 22, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 22 07:23:17 UTC 2015 (20150822 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150822 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150822 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150822 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220723

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
   FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES.
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
   ONTARIO MONDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWARD
   THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...THEN WESTWARD INTO
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...NORTHEAST U.S....
   MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. MONDAY AS
   THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A
   SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND
   1.25 INCHES. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...ALREADY
   DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   LAG BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKLY SHEARED AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
   ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...THE SEVERE THREAT
   MONDAY APPEARS TOO LOW TO OUTLINE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS.

   ..BUNTING.. 08/22/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z