SPC AC 030746

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
   ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
   LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
   ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
   NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
   SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
   STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
   NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
   OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
   PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
   THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


   ...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

   A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
   DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
   LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
   SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
   POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
   EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
   THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

   ...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

   SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
   SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
   DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
   WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..DIAL.. 09/03/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z