Oct 24, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 24 06:49:45 UTC 2015 (20151024 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20151024 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151024 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20151024 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240649

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR MONDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE PREVALENT OVER
   THE CONUS MONDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW
   OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WHILE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OTHERWISE
   OCCURS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH
   PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
   /PERHAPS SOME STRONG/ WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
   COAST REGION.

   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   WHILE A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND
   DAMAGE OR A TORNADO CANNOT BE CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT IN THE DAY 3
   TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL TO THE FL
   PANHANDLE...ANY SEVERE RISK CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW/TOO SPECULATIVE.
   THIS IS MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE
   NEAR-COASTAL CYCLONE AND ITS RELATED WIND FIELD...WHILE BUOYANCY
   OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WEAK WITH
   PERSISTENT/POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE REGION.

   ..GUYER.. 10/24/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z