SPC AC 270714

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
   ON THURSDAY MORNING AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON
   FRIDAY MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD EJECT TOWARDS
   NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY FRI. OCCLUDING
   SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC
   WITH ATTENDANT COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT PUSHING E OFF THE NEW
   ENGLAND/NORTHEAST COAST THU MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...A COUPLE OF
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD AID IN AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   TOWARDS THE GULF OF CA. 

   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A NON-ZERO BUT MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE FIRST
   COUPLE HOURS OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO THE FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE.
   GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
   QUITE LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT. WITH SUCH A SHORT TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO OVERLAY A MARGINAL WARM SECTOR...WILL
   DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK OF
   PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND.

   ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S-CNTRL TX...
   AFTER A RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE WRN GULF WITH A DRY
   CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY CHARACTERIZED BY
   PW VALUES BELOW A HALF INCH PER CURRENT GOES/GPS DATA...AIR MASS
   MODIFICATION/TRANSPORT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL ON D2 INTO D3. NWWD
   MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED LATE D3 AS A
   LLJ INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE DESERT SW/GULF OF CA MID-LEVEL
   TROUGH. MOST GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO ROBUST WITH SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SWLY FLOW AROUND 700-800 MB
   LIKELY INHIBITING SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. WHILE ELEVATED
   CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER N...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD TEND TOWARDS SMALL HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z