SPC AC 090832

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CST MON NOV 09 2015

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO...IL...SW
   IND...WRN KY...NW TN AND NRN AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS THE GREAT
   PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE ENHANCED
   RISK AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REACH THE OHIO AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY EVENING.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE...STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT
   REGION OF A 95 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
   SE NEB SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKLATEX. LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THE
   UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EWD DURING THE DAY...A COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EWD WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IA SWD ACROSS WRN MO INTO WRN
   AR. 

   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
   WEAK...THE FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
   ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS THAT
   DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A NARROW LINE
   OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE MS
   VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING
   CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL
   DUE TO THE MARGINAL QUALITY OF THE MOIST SECTOR.

   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND THE
   MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN
   VALLEYS. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST
   AS SW IND...WRN KY AND NW TN WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT
   BECOMING ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW TORNADOES ARE
   ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/09/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z