SPC AC 140758

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO SWRN
   KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
   SOUTH TX INTO WRN KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY.  DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN EJECT INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  IN RESPONSE TO
   THIS FEATURE...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES. 
   WHILE TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL NOT ADVANCE VERY FAR INLAND
   MONDAY...MODIFIED AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
   EXPECTED TO SURGE NWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH 70F+ DEW
   POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD ALONG THE TX/LA COAST.  SHORT-RANGE MODEL
   GUIDANCE AGREE SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS
   THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
   PERIOD AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ALONG
   SURGING COLD FRONT.  LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL
   EVOLVE NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER AROUND 17/00Z THEN QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE
   INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
   17/12Z.  STRONG SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST TORNADOES
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY SUPERCELL ACTIVITY.  STORM MODE SHOULD
   QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR...SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AND
   DAMAGING WIND/HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LINEAR MCS AS IT
   MIGRATES INTO CNTRL OK/NCNTRL TX BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

   ..DARROW.. 11/14/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z