Jan 16, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 16 13:00:12 UTC 2016 (20160116 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160116 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160116 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 30,371 12,267,852 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
MARGINAL 21,274 5,531,506 Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160116 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 28,926 11,188,241 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
2 % 11,542 4,360,171 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160116 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 30,472 12,312,138 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
5 % 21,616 6,116,948 Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160116 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 11,036 2,254,683 Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...League City, TX...Galveston, TX...Pearland, TX...
   SPC AC 161300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016

   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
   PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NCNTRL FL PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN TX
   COASTAL AREAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
   AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
   MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN TWO
   THIRDS OF THE U.S. TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
   REGIME WILL MOVE THROUGH TX BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE WRN GULF THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN GULF TONIGHT
   AND APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
   FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
   JUST OFF THE TX COAST AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN
   GULF...REACHING THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY. PRECEDING THE
   CYCLONE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL FL
   PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...

   RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL
   FL TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACCOMPANYING
   THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT LEAST MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS
   ARE EXPECTED INTO CNTRL FL WITH NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS LIKELY OVER THE
   SRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA. THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM...BUT OVERALL CAPE VALUES
   ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND POOR LAPSE RATES.
   MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL WITH VALUES AOB 800
   J/KG FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS OVER THE
   GULF...REACHING THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
   SUNDAY. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS TO
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MCS AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO 60+ KT WITHIN
   MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. THE RESULTING LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL
   PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
   DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL
   MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY THIS UPDATE GIVEN AN EXPECTED MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN ENHANCED RISK WOULD BE WARRANTED
   IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   ...CNTRL AND SERN TX COASTAL AREA...

   STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID/UPPER TEXAS
   COASTAL AREAS DURING 18-21Z. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEP
   850-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INLAND OF THE COAST IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
   WHETHER THIS WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
   BECOME CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...AND COULD
   IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA BEFORE
   FORCING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..DIAL/COOK.. 01/16/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z