The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States later today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 231630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
   FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SW
   GA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
   WRN GA TO CENTRAL LA AND MS/AL/WRN GA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK...FROM
   EXTREME SE TX TO NRN MS/AL...MUCH OF GA...AND INTO N FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT
   RISK...FROM SE TX TO SRN TN TO THE GA/SC BORDER AND NE FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.  A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL
   PROGRESS EWD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.  STRONG
   ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
   CYCLOGENESIS FROM E TX THIS MORNING NEWD TO TN OVERNIGHT.  IN
   RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
   /ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/ AND THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INLAND...THOUGH
   THE N EDGE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MODULATED BY THE
   INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN.  

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO GA/N FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
   THE ONGOING RAIN/CONVECTION ACROSS LA IS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER
   FORECAST...AND IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WILL ONLY BECOME
   ESTABLISHED FROM SE LA AND SRN MS EWD TODAY.  STRENGTHENING OF
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE SUPERCELL PROFILES EXPECTED
   BEGINNING THIS EVENING ON THE E EDGE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND
   SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   LARGE INLAND...THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
   300-600 M2 PER S2/ AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE
   CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW WILL PROMOTE PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS OF CELLS AND A
   BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SINCE THE WARM SECTOR
   WILL BE BETTER ESTABLISHED FARTHER E TODAY ACROSS SRN AL TO N
   FL...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
   INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  THE LARGE HAIL RISK WILL BE
   MORE CONFINED TO AREAS WITH STRONGER BUOYANCY AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER
   LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

   ...EXTREME SE TX INTO WRN LA LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE
   WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND COINCIDENT WITH THE PRIMARY
   SYNOPTIC WAVE.  LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
   RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A SHORT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 02/23/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z