San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
148,025
13,537,308
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 %
94,708
5,269,928
San Antonio, TX...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Tyler, TX...College Station, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
147,824
13,536,409
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 %
94,883
5,273,691
San Antonio, TX...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Tyler, TX...College Station, TX...
SPC AC 071637
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST MON MAR 07 2016
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ENCOMPASSING THE SLIGHT
RISK...AND INCLUDING PARTS OF KS/OK/TX...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S. IS PROGGED THIS
PERIOD...AS A TROUGH INVOF THE W COAST DIGS SSEWD TOWARD BAJA/NWRN
MEXICO. AS A CLOSED LOW EVOLVES WITH TIME OVER THE DESERT SW/NWRN
MEXICO...DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL
OCCUR.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SRN
CA AND THE DESERT SW INTO NWRN MEXICO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL SUPPORT EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGHING INTO THE
PLAINS...AS A SURFACE LOW MIGRATES NEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ENCOMPASSES THE SRN PLAINS AND ERN HALF OF KS
ATTM...AS A RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
CONTINUES...BENEATH A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER WILL HINDER APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CAPE DEVELOPMENT TO RESIDE ON
THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CLOUDINESS -- I.E. THE HIGH PLAINS.
HERE...HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREADING EWD
ATOP THE AREA WILL ASSIST IN DESTABILIZATION. EVEN HERE
HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HINDER OVERALL CAPE
INCREASE.
DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- BOTH AT LOW-LEVELS AND
THROUGH A DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC LAYER. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND SWD INTO CENTRAL TX --
WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING POTENTIAL...LIMITED RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS EVIDENT. THEREFORE...AS STORMS INCREASE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
REGIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF
CONVECTION.
FARTHER W...HEATING/MIXING INVOF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR. WHILE HIGHER-BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS WHICH DO INITIATE
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO RISK...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM S CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.
FINALLY...A WEAK UPPER FEATURE PROGGED TO BE MOVING NEWD OUT OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT MAY ASSIST IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE
WRN AND CENTRAL TX VICINITY. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LIMITED RISK FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
..GOSS/ROGERS.. 03/07/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z