Mar 7, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 7 16:37:23 UTC 2016 (20160307 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160307 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160307 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 147,679 13,520,654 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
MARGINAL 94,966 5,286,772 San Antonio, TX...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Tyler, TX...College Station, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160307 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 67,376 10,377,339 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
2 % 168,365 8,384,235 San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160307 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 148,025 13,537,308 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 94,708 5,269,928 San Antonio, TX...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Tyler, TX...College Station, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160307 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 147,824 13,536,409 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 94,883 5,273,691 San Antonio, TX...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Tyler, TX...College Station, TX...
   SPC AC 071637

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CST MON MAR 07 2016

   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ENCOMPASSING THE SLIGHT
   RISK...AND INCLUDING PARTS OF KS/OK/TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
   TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S. IS PROGGED THIS
   PERIOD...AS A TROUGH INVOF THE W COAST DIGS SSEWD TOWARD BAJA/NWRN
   MEXICO.  AS A CLOSED LOW EVOLVES WITH TIME OVER THE DESERT SW/NWRN
   MEXICO...DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL
   OCCUR. 

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SRN
   CA AND THE DESERT SW INTO NWRN MEXICO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   U.S. WILL SUPPORT EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGHING INTO THE
   PLAINS...AS A SURFACE LOW MIGRATES NEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ENCOMPASSES THE SRN PLAINS AND ERN HALF OF KS
   ATTM...AS A RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
   CONTINUES...BENEATH A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION.  PERSISTENT CLOUD
   COVER WILL HINDER APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE
   REGION...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CAPE DEVELOPMENT TO RESIDE ON
   THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CLOUDINESS -- I.E. THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   HERE...HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREADING EWD
   ATOP THE AREA WILL ASSIST IN DESTABILIZATION.  EVEN HERE
   HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HINDER OVERALL CAPE
   INCREASE.

   DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- BOTH AT LOW-LEVELS AND
   THROUGH A DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC LAYER.  WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND SWD INTO CENTRAL TX --
   WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING POTENTIAL...LIMITED RISK FOR A
   TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS EVIDENT.  THEREFORE...AS STORMS INCREASE
   ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
   REGIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF
   CONVECTION.

   FARTHER W...HEATING/MIXING INVOF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS
   EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
   OCCUR.  WHILE HIGHER-BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS WHICH DO INITIATE
   SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO RISK...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE LATE
   IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM S CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO
   THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.

   FINALLY...A WEAK UPPER FEATURE PROGGED TO BE MOVING NEWD OUT OF
   MEXICO OVERNIGHT MAY ASSIST IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE
   WRN AND CENTRAL TX VICINITY.  HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
   STORMS...ALONG WITH LIMITED RISK FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

   ..GOSS/ROGERS.. 03/07/2016

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