Mar 8, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 8 16:35:23 UTC 2016 (20160308 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160308 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160308 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 47,175 10,684,288 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Pasadena, TX...
SLIGHT 155,342 14,816,114 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 80,916 3,830,533 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160308 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 47,125 10,682,179 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Pasadena, TX...
5 % 93,735 10,389,201 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
2 % 48,008 3,351,569 Shreveport, LA...Brownsville, TX...Abilene, TX...Beaumont, TX...Norman, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160308 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 45,544 10,549,637 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Pasadena, TX...
15 % 155,018 14,950,927 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 83,016 3,834,850 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160308 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 180,455 24,064,355 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
5 % 72,593 3,244,833 Tulsa, OK...Shreveport, LA...Beaumont, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
   SPC AC 081635

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1035 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAIN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK AND THE ARKLATEX
   REGION SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...AND EXTENDING NWD TO SRN KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN TEXAS AND VICINITY TODAY.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND EXPANDING OVERNIGHT --
   MAINLY ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST PARTICULARLY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
   EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE TEXAS COASTAL AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
   THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES FLANKING A
   LARGE TROUGH/LOW MOVING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ACROSS MEXICO
   WITH TIME.  

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO...WITH A WEAK/TRAILING FRONT TO
   ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION.  FARTHER
   S...BROAD/ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS
   TX...AHEAD/NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS NRN
   MEXICO.

   ...TX/OK AND VICINITY...
   A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOWS AND LOCAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
   TX AND ADJACENT SRN OK.  THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
   MODEST INSTABILITY BEING AIDED BY CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF
   INCREASINGLY RICH GULF MOISTURE.  WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE
   RISK ACCOMPANYING THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE INTO
   THE ARKLATEX REGION /WHERE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES/...LOCAL SEVERE
   RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES -- WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
   STORMS PERSIST ON THE SRN/SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS.

   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX/SWRN OK...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING OF A MORE
   MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
   CAPE.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
   STORMS.

   FINALLY...THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
   ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN TX
   SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER ROUGHLY
   THE ERN HALF OF TX.  WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SLY/MERIDIONAL AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT NE OF THE UPPER LOW
   MAY TEMPER OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND VEERING OF THE FLOW IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM SUGGESTS
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
   EXPECTED...AS COMPLEX/UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO LINES/BANDS
   APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.

   ..GOSS/ROGERS.. 03/08/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z