Mar 15, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 15 16:22:38 UTC 2016 (20160315 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160315 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160315 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 27,806 1,996,948 Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Bloomington, IL...Normal, IL...
SLIGHT 67,774 17,861,387 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...
MARGINAL 95,116 20,154,521 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160315 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 20,940 1,426,568 Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Moline, IL...Quincy, IL...Rock Island, IL...
5 % 18,199 1,409,074 Springfield, IL...Bloomington, IL...Iowa City, IA...Normal, IL...DeKalb, IL...
2 % 26,837 3,812,327 Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Joliet, IL...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160315 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 67,962 8,064,179 Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Joliet, IL...Cedar Rapids, IA...
5 % 121,804 31,797,508 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Milwaukee, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160315 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 23,675 1,786,224 Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Bloomington, IL...Normal, IL...Moline, IL...
30 % 27,343 1,949,568 Peoria, IL...Davenport, IA...Bloomington, IL...Normal, IL...Moline, IL...
15 % 67,475 17,795,452 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...
5 % 96,714 20,425,964 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
   SPC AC 151622

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   MO...SOUTHEAST IA...AND NORTHERN IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER
   MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA/MO INTO LOWER MI AND
   OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
   SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

   ...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER MI/INDIANA TONIGHT...
   A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER WILL LIFT
   NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z WED. SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING WILL
   OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET THAT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
   REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SCENARIO LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
   STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS AND THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S/ BY AFTERNOON.

   SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MO...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
   WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY
   INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR
   OVER NORTHEAST MO...SOUTHEAST IA...AND NORTHERN IL WHERE PARAMETERS
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TORNADO
   RISK REMAINS THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
   PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
   LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET THERMODYNAMIC
   WEAKNESSES.

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AFFECTING PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IND AND PERHAPS REACHING
   SOUTHWEST LOWER MI BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

   ..HART/ROGERS.. 03/15/2016

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