Mar 17, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 17 06:01:00 UTC 2016 (20160317 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160317 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160317 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 35,834 2,312,555 Baton Rouge, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...Alexandria, LA...Lufkin, TX...Nacogdoches, TX...
MARGINAL 77,314 14,150,651 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160317 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 56,222 3,994,888 Baton Rouge, LA...Waco, TX...Temple, TX...Hattiesburg, MS...Alexandria, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160317 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,173 3,610,667 Worcester, MA...Manchester, NH...Lowell, MA...Nashua, NH...Lawrence, MA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160317 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 35,942 2,309,907 Baton Rouge, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...Alexandria, LA...Lufkin, TX...Nacogdoches, TX...
5 % 77,047 13,821,421 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
   SPC AC 170601

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX INTO THE GULF
   COASTAL REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER  A PORTION OF NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A PORTION OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
   WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MIGHT OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   U.S. THURSDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE ERN TWO
   THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM ERN TX
   THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   IN THAT REGION. 

   ...EASTERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST
   IN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
   CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
   ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE CAP IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH WWD
   EXTENT INTO TX...CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
   COVERAGE. DESPITE WEAK FORCING...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO CONVERGENCE IN
   VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE GREATER OVER
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM ERN TX INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM WILL BE WEAK...BUT VERTICAL
   SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   AND SPLITTING CELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  

   ...NEW ENGLAND...

   DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   SMALL HAIL.

   ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 03/17/2016

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