Mar 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 26 05:42:57 UTC 2016 (20160326 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160326 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160326 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 65,320 10,939,734 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160326 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160326 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 47,526 10,497,753 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160326 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,804 441,980 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Duncan, OK...Altus, OK...Burkburnett, TX...
   SPC AC 260542

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
   FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
   OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA TODAY...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED
   RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. MAY TREND A BIT MORE
   ZONAL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGHING APPROACHES THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   COAST...DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING...INCLUDING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
   SMALLER-SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT FROM THE
   GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PLAINS.  IN RESPONSE...ANOTHER COLD
   INTRUSION NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
   ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

   MEANWHILE...A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
   ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGION LIKELY WILL WEAKEN...WITH DEVELOPING
   LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
   SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING LATE TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXPANDS
   WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN INTO PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER FLOW
   IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM BROADLY CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
   PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM PROGRESSING
   ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE OF THESE MAY PROGRESS INLAND OFF THE
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION
   CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST THAT THE
   ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 17-19Z. 
   WHILE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY
   THIS TIME REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...CONVECTION
   WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
   SURFACE GUSTS...BEFORE PROGRESSING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
   ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION
   SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
   REGION.  THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CAPE AS LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES BY LATE THIS EVENING...AS A SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE /NOW DIGGING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/
   TURNS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   AIDED BY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.  A SMALL STORM
   CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...ROOTED IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE
   PRESENT TIME.

   ..KERR.. 03/26/2016

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